Embrace Alternative Histories

Between The Man in the High Castle and The Plot Against America, there is a lot of updated content for new fans of alternate history. Science Fiction pieces that explore the “what ifs” of world history allow audiences to contemplate different timelines and the indeterministic nature of our past. Singular events such as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand may not occur on another roll of the historical dice, yet their consequences ripple through time.

Extending this concept past the realm of entertainment, the process of considering alternative histories can help us make and evaluate our own decisions. Let’s use the infamous New York City subway system as the setting for an illustrative example. As many New Yorkers are familiar with, the subways can be quite crowded during standard commuting hours and passengers will struggle to occupy any vacant space in a subway car. Standing on a subway platform, it is not uncommon to see commuters continue to force their way onto trains that have reached a capacity far beyond normal levels of comfort. Unfortunate smells and lack of personal space aside, the last beleaguered soul to wedge himself onto the train also has to face the menacing subway doors. These heavy portals seem reasonably dangerous and have been known to trap their share of unsuspecting arms and backpacks.

So, what if I told that you every time you came into contact with a closing subway door there was a 25% chance that you would be seriously injured? The actual probability is significantly lower, but for this example, let’s use 25%. Wielding this knowledge, I am guessing that you may hesitate to use your arm to block a shutting subway door in order to board a departing train. Viewing this situation through the lens of alternative histories, for every 4 alternate universes where you insert your arm into a subway door, there is 1 version of you that is unfortunately maimed. If you know the odds and decide to take this particular risk, you are aware of this disastrous alternative outcome when you remain unscathed 3 out of the 4 times. Like betting on a dice roll, you understand that you may have not made a reasonable decision even though you are uninjured.

Unfortunately, most of the time, life is not like a casino or an undergraduate classroom. We do not know the odds for success or failure in most situations in advance of our important decisions. When dealing with a world fraught with randomness, we cannot measure our choices against the outcome of decisions alone. Rather, we need to be aware of the alternative histories and acknowledge the different ways a situation can resolve. Just because you manage to survive taking a significant risk does not mean you have made a reasonable decision. There could have been a 95% chance of failure and you are living the world where the 5% chance outcome has occurred.

I was first introduced to the concept of alternative histories through Nassim Taleb’s book Fooled By Randomness. Whether I’m investing in the market or setting a fantasy football lineup, I try to consider the alternative histories when I make new decisions or judge past ones.